(GOLF) Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Betting Tips
Arnold Palmer Invitational
The PGA Tour makes the short trip across Florida from Palm Harbor to Orlando in order to contest the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Unfortunately, this will be the first event played after the passing of the late Arnold Palmer, ensuring the week will be one filled with emotion. Nevertheless, given that this is one of the marquee events on the PGA Tour, the field will comprise of a number of the world's top players who will no doubt be inspired to play their best in memory of the late great. In terms of the course, Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,419 yards. Despite it's lengthy yardage scoring is usually low, with the last 5 editions being won with a score of -13 or lower.
Last Year:
Jason Day held the 54 hole lead at -15 and a 2 shot lead over his nearest competitors, but proceedings weren't plain sailing for the Australian as he opened with 3 bogeys in his first 5 holes. This allowed Kevin Chappell to make his mark, and the American held the lead with 2 holes to play. However, when he bogeyed the last to set the clubhouse lead at -16, Day came roaring back and birdied the 17th before a gutsy par-save at the last ensured a 1 shot victory. A number of the world's top players filled the rest of the top 10, including Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey and Justin Rose.
In this article, I will examine both player form and course form of every player in the field. Using this information, I will then come to a judgement of who I think will be the top 6 players to look our for in the upcoming event.
*The odds for each player to win is provided by Sky Bet,
My Tips:
Henrik Stenson - 8/1:
Stenson is my overwhelming favourite this week. The Swede has done everything but win in this event; in the past 5 events he has recorded finishes of T15, T8, T5, 2, and T3. In these years, he is also an accumulative -50. That is an extraordinary effort from the world number 5, who will be looking to finally lift this trophy that he has come so close to hoisting in previous years. Moreover, in his last 8 starts, he has 7 top 10's, including 3 second place finishes. The only exception came at the World Golf Championship in Mexico, where he withdrew with a virus. However, these lingering effects seem to have dissipated, seeing as he managed a T7 finish last week at the Valspar. The Swede has won 18 times in his career world wide. There's a good chance he could make it 19 this week.
Justin Rose - 18/1:
At 18/1, The Englishman could be tempting to place money on this week. In his last 5 starts at Bay Hill, he has recorded a T3, T15, 2, MC and a T9 finish last year. He has also been in good form recently, finishing no worse than a T39 in his last 6 starts, which also encompasses two T4's and a solo second place finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. I would not be surprised if he went one better than his second place finish here in 2013.
Francesco Molinari - 40/1:
The more successful of the Molinari brothers, Francesco could be one that contends this week. In the past 4 editions at Bay Hill the Italian has performed well, recording finishes of T34, T5, T17 and T9. He has also been very good worldwide recently, having made the cut in 8 of his last 9 events dating back to his win in the Italian Open. In these 9 events, he has finished in the Top 20 in each of these starts. Course form and recent form points to a good week for the Italian, and he could be tempting value at 40/1.
Jason Kokrak - 80/1:
The big hitting American has never won on the PGA Tour but there are signs that this week could be his week. Kokrak has good form at the event; in the past 3 years he has finished 4th in 2014, followed by a T6 and a T20 last year. he has been in steady form recently, having made his last 3 cuts and finishing in the top 25 in two of those. He is such a force with the Driver in his hand, which makes him a contender every time he tees it up. However, if he is to contend, he needs to find some form with the flat stick. Currently he is losing .414 strokes to the field per event with the putter, making him 168th on the PGA Tour. If he can discover some form with the putter, I have no doubt that he will have a chance this week.
Ian Poulter - 150/1:
I believe odds of 150/1 for the charismatic Englishman is way too high. Although he is not the player he was 5 years ago, he is still a solid player who has the potential to win every time he tees it up. He has been in steady form recently having made his last 7 cuts worldwide. He has also been in steady form at Bay Hill, having made his last 6 cuts here with 5 top 26 finishes, including a solo third place finish in 2012. Europe's Ryder Cup phenomenon may not have won since 2012, but he has good course form at Bay Hill and has been in decent form recently. Combining the two, in my opinion at 150/1 he is well worth putting money on.
Ben Martin - 200/1:
Martin's game is not in very good shape at the moment. In his last 9 events, he has missed the cut in 6 of those, whilst not recording a finish higher than a T36. But, there are signs that he could be one to watch at this event. In his past 2 years here, he has finished in a 5th place finish and a T12. This is good form, showing that he can play well and record high finishes in an event that is stacked with talent year after year. But what attracts my attention the most, is he usually produces results out of nowhere. His second place finish at the John Deere last year followed 2 missed cuts. His win at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open came off the back 5 missed cuts in his previous 7 events. He seems to put together great weeks after many weeks of turmoil, so at 200/1, at a course he clearly likes, he could be one to watch.
Projected Champion: Henrik Stenson
Others that could contend: Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Zach Johnson, Gary Woodland, Sean O'Hair, Wesley Bryan
The PGA Tour makes the short trip across Florida from Palm Harbor to Orlando in order to contest the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Unfortunately, this will be the first event played after the passing of the late Arnold Palmer, ensuring the week will be one filled with emotion. Nevertheless, given that this is one of the marquee events on the PGA Tour, the field will comprise of a number of the world's top players who will no doubt be inspired to play their best in memory of the late great. In terms of the course, Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,419 yards. Despite it's lengthy yardage scoring is usually low, with the last 5 editions being won with a score of -13 or lower.
Last Year:
Jason Day held the 54 hole lead at -15 and a 2 shot lead over his nearest competitors, but proceedings weren't plain sailing for the Australian as he opened with 3 bogeys in his first 5 holes. This allowed Kevin Chappell to make his mark, and the American held the lead with 2 holes to play. However, when he bogeyed the last to set the clubhouse lead at -16, Day came roaring back and birdied the 17th before a gutsy par-save at the last ensured a 1 shot victory. A number of the world's top players filled the rest of the top 10, including Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey and Justin Rose.
In this article, I will examine both player form and course form of every player in the field. Using this information, I will then come to a judgement of who I think will be the top 6 players to look our for in the upcoming event.
*The odds for each player to win is provided by Sky Bet,
My Tips:
Henrik Stenson - 8/1:
Stenson is my overwhelming favourite this week. The Swede has done everything but win in this event; in the past 5 events he has recorded finishes of T15, T8, T5, 2, and T3. In these years, he is also an accumulative -50. That is an extraordinary effort from the world number 5, who will be looking to finally lift this trophy that he has come so close to hoisting in previous years. Moreover, in his last 8 starts, he has 7 top 10's, including 3 second place finishes. The only exception came at the World Golf Championship in Mexico, where he withdrew with a virus. However, these lingering effects seem to have dissipated, seeing as he managed a T7 finish last week at the Valspar. The Swede has won 18 times in his career world wide. There's a good chance he could make it 19 this week.
Justin Rose - 18/1:
At 18/1, The Englishman could be tempting to place money on this week. In his last 5 starts at Bay Hill, he has recorded a T3, T15, 2, MC and a T9 finish last year. He has also been in good form recently, finishing no worse than a T39 in his last 6 starts, which also encompasses two T4's and a solo second place finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. I would not be surprised if he went one better than his second place finish here in 2013.
Francesco Molinari - 40/1:
The more successful of the Molinari brothers, Francesco could be one that contends this week. In the past 4 editions at Bay Hill the Italian has performed well, recording finishes of T34, T5, T17 and T9. He has also been very good worldwide recently, having made the cut in 8 of his last 9 events dating back to his win in the Italian Open. In these 9 events, he has finished in the Top 20 in each of these starts. Course form and recent form points to a good week for the Italian, and he could be tempting value at 40/1.
Jason Kokrak - 80/1:
The big hitting American has never won on the PGA Tour but there are signs that this week could be his week. Kokrak has good form at the event; in the past 3 years he has finished 4th in 2014, followed by a T6 and a T20 last year. he has been in steady form recently, having made his last 3 cuts and finishing in the top 25 in two of those. He is such a force with the Driver in his hand, which makes him a contender every time he tees it up. However, if he is to contend, he needs to find some form with the flat stick. Currently he is losing .414 strokes to the field per event with the putter, making him 168th on the PGA Tour. If he can discover some form with the putter, I have no doubt that he will have a chance this week.
Ian Poulter - 150/1:
I believe odds of 150/1 for the charismatic Englishman is way too high. Although he is not the player he was 5 years ago, he is still a solid player who has the potential to win every time he tees it up. He has been in steady form recently having made his last 7 cuts worldwide. He has also been in steady form at Bay Hill, having made his last 6 cuts here with 5 top 26 finishes, including a solo third place finish in 2012. Europe's Ryder Cup phenomenon may not have won since 2012, but he has good course form at Bay Hill and has been in decent form recently. Combining the two, in my opinion at 150/1 he is well worth putting money on.
Ben Martin - 200/1:
Martin's game is not in very good shape at the moment. In his last 9 events, he has missed the cut in 6 of those, whilst not recording a finish higher than a T36. But, there are signs that he could be one to watch at this event. In his past 2 years here, he has finished in a 5th place finish and a T12. This is good form, showing that he can play well and record high finishes in an event that is stacked with talent year after year. But what attracts my attention the most, is he usually produces results out of nowhere. His second place finish at the John Deere last year followed 2 missed cuts. His win at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open came off the back 5 missed cuts in his previous 7 events. He seems to put together great weeks after many weeks of turmoil, so at 200/1, at a course he clearly likes, he could be one to watch.
Projected Champion: Henrik Stenson
Others that could contend: Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Zach Johnson, Gary Woodland, Sean O'Hair, Wesley Bryan
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